Education advocates urge Ont. to turn mothballed schools into community hubs

TORONTO — An education advocacy group called on the province Monday to turn potential school closures into opportunities to deliver community services.

But Education Minister Kathleen Wynn disputed the number of schools the group said were slated to close.

At the same time Wynn said her ministry does not have a solid count of how many schools are on the chopping block, saying that's a moving number.

There are 172 Ontario schools scheduled for shutdown and 163 more under review, according to People for Education.

Instead of shutting them down, consideration should be given to keeping some open, and using the extra space to set up child, family and youth resources and programs, said the group's Executive Director Annie Kidder.

"Children and families are like an ecosystem, that health is connected to education, is connected to poverty, is connected to housing, that mental health is connected to youth engagement, physical health affects kids ability to succeed. All these things are connected but we still don't have a framework."

The report says as well as being used for their traditional purpose, schools could become community hubs providing services such as daycare, parenting centres, community kitchens, public libraries and health clinics.

"That's exactly what we're attempting to do ... we're doing what we can to make it clear to the system that we expect this to happen" said Wynn of the idea to make schools into a "hub" of services for children, families and youth.

Enrolment is down primarily because of declining birth rates and people moving, says Kidder.

Even the substantial number of immigrants calling the province home isn't enough to make up for the shortfall caused by people having fewer children.

The number of new students enrolling in Ontario's elementary schools has dropped by 15 per cent since 1997 and by 14 per cent in secondary schools since 2002, according to earlier figures released by the group.

By 2012, there will be 140,000 fewer students than seven years ago, according to the new report.

It also pegs the average number of students in elementary schools at 310, with secondary schools averaging 812.

"We're moving to a system of larger and larger schools. It doesn't necessarily make educational sense though," says Kidder.

"These school closings actually end up changing the face and the look of Ontario. They affect much more than just the education of the students in those buildings, they affect whole communities and whole neighbourhoods."

But the question is whether the "hub" idea is affordable at this time, says Conservative Opposition critic Elizabeth Witmer.

People for Education is calling for a review of the way schools are funded.

Currently, the province uses a formula based on dollars per student and square footage of schools to calculate how much money a school will be given to operate.

As the number of students declines, schools receive less money and say they are struggling to hire enough specialty teachers and librarians and to pay for busing.

The current formula originated with the Conservative government of Mike Harris in 1997 but has been revamped several times by the provincial Liberals.

Witmer accuses the Liberals of hiding their heads in the sand over the issue.

"The problem is this government has refused to consider this whole issue of whether or not schools need to be closed or whether we can afford to keep them open," Witmer said. "Yes, I support the idea of schools as community hubs, but can we afford it?"

Obama, House Dems press for health care votes

WASHINGTON — President Barack Obama and House Democrats scrambled on Thursday to secure the votes to pass a historic health care overhaul initiative, working to ease disagreements with rank-and-file lawmakers over abortion and illegal immigrants.

Obama met at the White House with several Hispanic lawmakers who oppose any prohibition on the ability of illegal immigrants to use their own money to purchase health coverage in a new government-run marketplace.

"He listened to us. We listened to him," said Rep. Nydia Velazquez, D-N.Y., head of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. "We made it very clear that 20 votes in the Hispanic caucus" depend on the language in the House bill. Currently, there is no prohibition in the House bill against illegal immigrants buying insurance in the exchange, but the White House backs such a ban and one exists in the Senate bill.

"I think that he got our message," Velazquez said.

House Rules Committee Chairwoman Louise Slaughter, D-N.Y., said later that she did not believe there would be any change to the House bill on immigration.

The second-ranking Democrat in the House said lawmakers would debate and vote Saturday on the $1.2-trillion, 10-year measure that expands coverage to millions of uninsured. In a major boost, the American Medical Association and the powerful seniors' lobby AARP both threw their weight behind the bill. AARP, with its 40 million members, promised to run ads and contact activists to gin up support.

Obama planned a rare visit to the House to persuade wavering Democrats. It had been set for Friday morning but after the fatal shootings at Fort Hood, Texas, the White House rescheduled it until Saturday.

Democratic opponents of abortion — under pressure from Catholic bishops — want stronger provisions written in the bill that no federal funds would be used to finance abortion in coverage bought in the government-run exchange.

Language being circulated by one anti-abortion Democrat, Rep. Brad Ellsworth of Indiana, seemed likely to be the basis for an agreement. Ellsworth's language aims to strengthen stipulations already in the bill against federal money being used to pay for abortions. It would still allow people to pay for abortion coverage with their own money.

The language was still being negotiated late Thursday, but Slaughter said she expected it to be included in the bill.

Obama heralded the support of the two groups — AARP and the AMA.

"I urge Congress to listen to AARP, listen to the AMA, and pass this reform for hundreds of millions of Americans who will benefit from it," Obama told reporters during an unannounced visit to the White House briefing room after the endorsements were announced.

At the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue, Democrats were listening.

"We are right on the brink," said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif. "We have an historic opportunity for us to again provide quality health care for all Americans. It is something that many of us have worked our whole political lifetimes on."

Pelosi and other Democratic leaders were working to nail down the majority votes they'll need to pass the bill.

They were optimistic, but work remained to be done, and a much slower timeline in the Senate made the ultimate outcome unpredictable. Action in the Senate may not come until next year, and legislation passed by the two chambers would have to be reconciled before a bill could go to Obama.

Pelosi, Majority Leader Steny Hoyer and other House leaders spent Thursday in back-to-back meetings on final details of the bill. Hoyer, D-Md., predicted a tight vote.

"I wouldn't refer to it as a squeaker, but I think it's going to be close," Hoyer said in an interview with wire service reporters. "This is a huge undertaking."

If Democrats were coalescing, so were their opponents. Thousands of conservatives rallied outside the Capitol on Thursday, chanting "Kill the bill!"

When it comes time to vote Pelosi will have two more Democrats to count on in the wake of Tuesday's elections. Former California Lt. Gov. John Garamendi was sworn in Thursday to a Northern California congressional seat after telling fellow lawmakers he had campaigned for health care in his race. Democrat Bill Owens is being sworn in Friday to represent a New York district long held by the GOP.

The House bill would cover 96 percent of Americans, providing government subsidies beginning in 2013 to extend coverage to millions who now lack it. Self-employed people and small businesses could buy coverage through the new exchanges, either from a private insurer or a new government plan that would compete. All the plans sold through the exchange would have to follow basic consumer protection rules.

For the first time, almost all individuals would be required to purchase insurance or pay a fine, and employers would be required to insure their employees. Insurance companies would be barred from denying coverage to people with pre-existing medical conditions or charging much higher rates to older people.

Associated Press writers David Espo, Laurie Kellman and Alan Fram contributed to this report.

Climate talks face difficult road ahead of meeting

Boycotts on either side of the Atlantic on Tuesday showed just how difficult it will be to clinch an agreement on global warming next month.

At U.N. climate talks in Barcelona, Spain, African nations walked out of meetings to protest rich nations' reluctance to make substantial carbon-cutting commitments. In Washington, some conservative Republicans boycotted the start of committee debate on a bill to curb greenhouse gases, fearful of the cost to the U.S. economy.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, in a bid to support the Democratic-sponsored climate bill, told a rare joint session of Congress "there is no time to lose" in tackling climate change.

But the lukewarm response to her comments on global warming — in contrast to the ovations she received at other times — only underscored the skeptical mood in the United States about climate action, which would require a shift away from fossil fuels to wind and solar power, smaller cars and — the Republicans argue — more expense to consumers.

GOP senators on the Environment and Public Works Committee shunned the planned startup of voting on amendments to the bill. Only Sen. George Voinovich, R-Ohio, showed up and he stayed only for 15 minutes to give the reasons for the Republicans' absence.

African countries ended a boycott of meetings in Spain at U.N. climate negotiations, having reset the talks' agenda to spend more time on complaints that industrial countries had set carbon-cutting targets too low for reducing global greenhouse gas emissions.

The parallel actions were elements of a dramatic finale leading up to the 192-nation conference in Copenhagen on Dec. 7-18, which is meant to adopt a treaty regulating carbon emissions that will shake economies around the globe.

The African revolt was largely symbolic, since it was clear that industrial countries cannot alter their positions without high-level political decisions by governments.

But it was a signal that hard-liners would dominate negotiations by the developing countries at the decisive Copenhagen forum, and marked the 50-nation African group as an influential player on the global stage.

The Africans, supported by about 70 other developing countries, including China, say the industrial world is failing to live up to pledges of deep cuts in emissions, while droughts and floods already are causing death and devastation on the badly hit continent.

"I don't think we can get to a result in the way we're going now," said Algerian negotiator Kamel Djemouai, who chairs the Africa group. "The figures that are now on the table are not really ambitious."

The White House and Democratic leaders in Congress have essentially abandoned prospects of getting a climate bill to President Barack Obama's desk before the Copenhagen meeting. But they hope a show of progress in the Senate — along with the House having passed a bill and Obama's call for more fuel-efficient cars — will show the world the U.S. is taking climate change seriously.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon acknowledged the climate change treaty may not be resolved this year, adding that nations may be unable to commit to firm emissions limits at Copenhagen.

"We may not be able to agree (on) all the words," Ban said after meeting in London with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown. Ban said he would push leaders to strike a pact in Copenhagen, but that it was more likely to be an agreement on principles — rather than specific targets for cuts.

"We need at this time the political will — if there is a political will, there is a way we can come to a binding agreement in Copenhagen," Ban said.

Scientists say industrial countries should reduce emissions by 25 percent to 40 percent from 1990 levels by 2020, but the targets announced so far amount to far less than the minimum.

The Africans say new climate studies show the dangers are even greater than thought just a few years ago, and that industrial nations should reduce emissions by at least 40 percent by 2020.

The U.S. delegation has refused to say what its figure will be until it gets a green light from Congress.

"It's really good that the Africans have finally been able to stand up together," said Fiona Musana of Greenpeace Africa. "That sends a strong signal."

A new study published Tuesday says the glaciers on Africa's highest mountain, Kilimanjaro, have lost 85 percent of the ice they had in 1912, with more than a quarter present in 2000 gone by 2007.

The study, in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, cited Earth's rising temperatures as at least a partial cause. It said similar changes have occurred at Mount Kenya and the Rwenzori Mountains in Africa, as well as at glaciers in South America and the Himalayas.

Climate negotiators are closely watching events in Washington. The standoff in the Senate committee was precisely the kind of confrontation that aroused concern among the delegates and calls for the U.S. to declare its intentions before the Copenhagen meeting.

The Copenhagen measure would succeed the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which called on 37 industrial countries to reduce heat-raising gas emissions by an average 5 percent below 1990 levels by 2012. It made no demands on developing countries such as India and China.

The Clinton administration signed the protocol but never sent it to the Senate for ratification, saying it wanted the agreement to include developing nations first. The treaty is not binding on the United States unless the Senate ratifies it.

Then, former President George W. Bush said he would not send it to the Senate for ratification, making the U.S. the only country to have signed the accord to say it has no intention of ratifying it.

Merkel assured Congress that China and India will agree to accept limits on their own carbon emissions as part of a Copenhagen pact, if the U.S. does.

After meeting the German leader in the White House, Obama reiterated his determination to join an international climate regime.

"The United States, Germany and countries around the world, I think, are all beginning to recognize why it is so important that we work in common in order to stem the potential catastrophe that can result if we continue to see global warming continue unabated," he said.

Obama also met with European Union leaders hoping to advance a climate policy. He said he and the European leaders agreed it is imperative that they redouble efforts to reach a climate deal in Copenhagen. European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said he emerged from the talks more confident about climate progress.

Barroso said forging a climate deal would be "a defining moment" for his generation of world leaders, and that he was worried by the lack of progress toward a final agreement in Copenhagen. But he dismissed the suggestion of aiming for a watered-down treaty.

"If you start to speak of Plan B in Copenhagen, you will probably end up with Plan F," he said.

Max reported from Barcelona, Spain. Associated Press writers Desmond Butler and Randolph E. Schmid in Washington and Michelle Faul in Johannesburg contributed.

Honduran Congress to review crisis accord Tuesday

TEGUCIGALPA, Honduras — Lawmakers will wait until Tuesday to consider a U.S.-brokered agreement that could return deposed President Manuel Zelaya to power, despite diplomats' pleas to not delay an end to the country's 4-month-old political crisis.

Monday is a holiday in Honduras, and many legislators are busy campaigning for Nov. 29 elections that will also elect a successor to Zelaya.

Nonetheless, Zelaya said Saturday that he hopes he will be back in office by Thursday, the deadline for the two sides to establish a power-sharing government.

"By Thursday, the government of national unity should be installed," he said in a meeting broadcast by Radio Globo. "By that day, point No. 5 has to be resolved," he added, referring to the clause of the agreement that covers his return to office.

While he did not say what he would do if the Thursday deadline was not met, Zelaya said "that day will either be a celebration, or a day of mourning."

Diplomats have urged lawmakers not to delay; if Congress approves the pact, a unity government including members of the major parties will be installed and the country will win international recognition for the elections. Many countries have warned they would not accept the elections' results if the June coup is not reversed.

Ramon Velasquez, the congressional secretary who is in charge of handling submitted measures said Saturday that consideration of the deal "will not be until Tuesday, because I'm in full swing campaigning for my re-election to Congress."

Legislators also suggested it would take time to debate. "It is important to give Congress space, without pressure, to be able to reach the best decision," said Congressman Juan Orlando Hernandez of the opposition National Party, which has 55 seats in the 128-seat body.

Zelaya's Liberal Party controls 65 seats. However, the party is split between those who support him and those who don't.

The legislature backed his removal, but congressional leaders have since said they won't stand in the way of an agreement that would end Honduras' diplomatic isolation and legitimize the presidential elections.

Diplomats urged the body not to delay.

"I am sure the members of Congress will fully realize the importance and political urgency of these matters, and I hope they will act as quickly as possible," said Organization of American States Political Affairs Secretary Victor Rico.

The top U.S. envoy for the Americas has told both sides time is running out.

Assistant U.S. Secretary of State Thomas Shannon said this week that "there was no more space for them to dither."

Tensions are still high. On Saturday, authorities evacuated the home of interim government Foreign Minister Carlos Lopez after a suspicious-looking suitcase was found on the sidewalk outside.

Government spokesman Rene Zepeda said police removed the bag and determined it did not contain explosives. He said officers also searched Lopez's house without finding anything suspicious.

Zelaya was rousted from his bed by soldiers on June 28 and flown out of the country. He has been inside the Brazilian Embassy since Sept. 21, when he made a surprise return to the Honduran capital.

Passports linked to 9/11 found along Afghan border

SHERWANGAI, Pakistan — Pakistani soldiers battling their way into a Taliban stronghold along the Afghan border have seized passports that may be linked to 9/11 suspects, as they confront an enemy skilled in operating in a mountainous terrain with endless ways to wage a guerrilla war.

The military on Thursday took foreign and local journalists for a first look inside the largely lawless territory since it launched a ground offensive here in mid-October. The U.S.-backed operation is focused on a section of the tribal region where the Pakistani Taliban are based and are believed to shelter al-Qaida.

Soldiers displayed passports seized in the operation, among them a German document belonging to a man named Said Bahaji. That matches the name of a man thought to have been a member of the Hamburg cell that conceived the 9/11 attacks. Bahaji is believed to have fled Germany shortly before the attacks in New York and Washington.

The passport included a tourist visa for Pakistan and a stamp indicating he'd arrived in the southern city of Karachi on Sept. 4, 2001.

Another passport, from Spain, bears the name of Raquel Burgos Garcia. Spanish media have reported that a woman with the same name is married to Amer Azizi, an alleged al-Qaida member from Morocco suspected in both the 9/11 attacks and the Madrid train bombings in 2004.

Her family in Madrid has had no news of her since 2001, according to Spanish media. Her passport included visas to India and Iran, and the army displayed a Moroccan document with Burgos Garcia's photo and other information.

It was impossible to determine whether the passports are genuine, and German and Spanish officials did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas, the army's chief spokesman, said he had not realized the passports matched any prominent names, and declined further comment other than to say European militants were sprinkled throughout the area.

The U.S. has maintained for years that South Waziristan and other parts of the rugged frontier have sheltered Osama bin Laden and his senior lieutenants.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, visiting this country on Thursday, said Pakistan squandered opportunities over the years to kill or capture al-Qaida leaders responsible for the Sept. 11 attacks.

"I find it hard to believe that nobody in your government knows where they are and couldn't get them if they really wanted to," Clinton said in an interview with Pakistani journalists in Lahore. "Maybe that's the case. Maybe they're not gettable. I don't know."

Although the military spent months using airstrikes to soften up targets in South Waziristan, nearly two weeks into the ground offensive it has captured only a few areas, none with significant strategic value. The army has seized weapons but is still trying to secure the main roads and regularly comes under rocket fire.

"It's a long-drawn haul," Abbas said. "They are offering resistance, and we are also striking them hard."

Pakistan's tribal belt, a semiautonomous stretch of land where the government has long had little influence, is usually off-limits to foreigners. In recent years, as the militants' influence has spread, even many Pakistanis dare not venture here.

The tribal regions are some of the poorest, most underdeveloped areas in the world and have long been guided by traditional codes and councils. The Taliban have slaughtered hundreds of tribal elders in their rise to power.

In Sherwangai, a sparsely populated district along one of the offensive's three major fronts, army commanders said they had killed 82 insurgents and lost six soldiers in their attempt to secure the area, where the hills are covered in brush, rocks and dust and strong winds whip high ridges. Many battle-hardened Uzbek militants are believed to have taken shelter here.

The military is slowly capturing isolated hamlets as it encircles the small town of Kaniguram, its next target in the push forward. But even where the army has taken control, much of the area remains dangerous, filled with land mines and roadside bombs.

After an initial surge of resistance, many militants have been fleeing. Because the army has sealed off the main passes, "they will not be able to go out in a major way," said Maj. Gen. Khalid Rabbani, a top battlefield commander.

Yet, he added, "If somebody chooses even to cross Mount Everest, he will be able to do it. So there are going to be a few, changing their disguise — taking care of their beards and long hair — they will be able to get out."

In addition to the passports, the military displayed papers and dozens of weapons and large amounts of ammunition it said it had recovered from Sherwangai.

Civilians were nowhere to be seen during Thursday's trip — some 155,000 have left the region in the past few months. South Waziristan normally has about 500,000 people.

At one military outpost, in a large mud compound in Sherwangai, smoke could be seen rising in the distance from villages under army fire. Officials assured reporters the civilians had left those areas.

The military previously estimated that the South Waziristan offensive would take at least two to three months, and officials were hesitant Thursday to give a deadline. They also declined to give a time frame for how long troops would have to stay to prevent militants from returning.

It also is unclear whether Islamabad has any plans for how to govern the territory effectively and prevent the insurgency from again taking root.

The army has deployed three divisions — about 30,000 troops — to take on some 5,000 to 8,000 militants, Abbas said, lowering a previous estimate of 10,000 militants. His estimate included up to 1,500 foreign fighters, most of them Uzbeks. Afghan fighters are also reportedly filtering in from across the border.

This is the fourth major offensive the Pakistani army has launched in South Waziristan since 2004, and this time the military has promised a fight to the finish. The previous operations ended in setbacks or peace deals that left the militant groups even stronger.

CAW emphasizes importance of new Ford contract as negotiations resume

TORONTO — As talks with Ford Canada resume, the Canadian Auto Workers union wants its members to reflect on possible cost concessions in a new deal with the carmaker, even if Ford's U.S. parent turns a profit when it reports third-quarter results this week.

Analysts from JP Morgan said last week the automaker - the only one of the so-called Detroit Three to avoid filing for bankruptcy protection earlier this year - could find itself in the black for the July to September quarter thanks to a gain in North American market share.

But CAW president Ken Lewenza said this doesn't negate the need for a new labour contract in Canada that will cut costs for the company.

The two sides will return to the bargaining table Monday after earlier rounds made no progress. Ford says it needs workers to give it the same concessions they gave competitors General Motors and Chrysler earlier this year in order to stay competitive. In exchange, the union is asking for a guarantee the company will maintain current production levels in Canada.

"When Ford Motor Co. (NYSE:F) looks like they're starting to turn a profit, then workers themselves ask, 'Why are sacrifices necessary?"' Lewenza said.

"But Ford in terms of cost structure is at a disadvantage today based on what we did at GM and Chrysler."

That said, Lewenza said he's "frustrated" at Ford's refusal to date to make any promises regarding production or jobs at its Canadian plants.

"We've had lots of bargaining sessions, lots of exchanging of information, and the job quite frankly should be done by now and it isn't," he said.

"It's really all about future investment and future security of Ford workers in Canada, but we haven't been able to get it done."

Since the CAW and Ford broke off official talks, the United Auto Workers in the U.S. have reached their own agreement with the company which includes a six-year ban striking over wages or benefits and a wage freeze for new hires. In exchange, the company has promised a US$1,000 one-time bonus and has made some production commitments.

However, many UAW workers are angry about the no-strike clause and it is by no means assured that the contract will be ratified by the union's membership, who will vote on it throughout the week.

"It's going to be a very tough vote, and that would change things for the CAW if the UAW membership voted down those concessions. That would help the CAW a lot," said Tony Faria, co-director of the automotive research centre at the University of Windsor.

The main issue in the ongoing negotiations on this side of the border is the future of an assembly plant in St. Thomas, Ont.

Currently, the 1,600-employee plant builds the Ford Crown Victoria, the Lincoln Town Car and the Mercury Grand Marquis - all full-sized cars, demand for which is limited to niche markets. The Crown Victoria is only included in sales of fleets, such as those run by police departments and taxi companies.

Ford has said repeatedly that it has no plans to manufacture vehicles in St. Thomas beyond 2011. Lewenza has suggested Ford could increase production at its other Canadian plants to offset the closure of St. Thomas, but Ford won't release any details on its plans.

"We've asked them to take a look at where existing work is being sourced and see if there's a possibility to source more work into our workplaces and those are the options we're going to have to talk about (this) week, but to be honest we haven't made much headway," Lewenza said.

Ford spokeswoman Lauren More said the company doesn't discuss future production or product plans for competitive reasons.

She would only say the company is looking forward to "working with the CAW to find additional cost savings in order to ensure the competitiveness of our manufacturing operations in Canada."

Faria said there may be ways to increase production at Ford's two engine plants in the Windsor, Ont., area.

"I think in terms of getting a commitment from Ford for some future investment and future jobs, I think their engine facilities in Windsor are a better bet. Ford is always going to need engines, power trains and transmissions for their vehicles," he said.

According to the CAW's own data, which is supported by independent data from industry adviser AutomotiveCompass, Ford intends to slash its Canadian manufacturing presence from 13 per cent to eight per cent of total North American production by 2013.

CAW economist Jim Stanford has said the company's plans for its southern Ontario operations include closing the St. Thomas plant by 2011, permanently shrinking production in Oakville from three shifts to two, and cutting back the workforce at an engine plant in Windsor.

The union has accused Ford of asking for the same concessions given to General Motors and Chrysler in negotiations earlier this year, without being willing to make the same promises in return.

Chrysler committed to maintaining 20 per cent of its assembly operations in Canada, while GM promised to keep 18 per cent of its operations here.

Ford employs about 7,000 hourly workers in Canada and more than 70,000 in North America. Its North American workforce has shrunk by more than 40 per cent since late 2006, when it employed more than 112,000 workers.

Agrium warns of Q3 profit plunge

Fertilizer producer Agrium Inc. warned Friday that its third-quarter profit will be 90 to 95 per cent lower than last year's third-quarter results.

Agrium reported a profit of $2.31 US a share last year as high grain prices helped to bolster demand for fertilizers. A profit drop of 90 to 95 per cent would translate into earnings of 12 to 23 cents US a share.

The Calgary-based company blamed "significantly lower prices and margins" for all of the fertilizers it produces, especially phosphate and potash.

In a statement, Agrium said margins have been squeezed and its fungicide sales declined 40 per cent this summer.

It said U.S. customers are increasingly saying they'll soon revert to their normal fertilizer application levels "particularly now that corn prices have increased again to well above historic levels."

Agrium said it was well positioned for what it called a "strong recovery" in demand in 2010.

"If the wet weather in the U.S. continues and shortens the fall application season, it is expected to push fall nutrient demand into the spring of 2010," the company said in a statement.

Agrium will provide final third-quarter financial results on Nov. 4.

Shares fall 7 per cent

Agrium shares were down $4.12 to $55.61 at the close of TSX trading Friday, but were still twice their 52-week low of $28.70.

Agrium's profit warning followed similarly gloomy reports from other fertilizer makers, which have been hobbled by a global financial crisis as well as lower grain prices in the last year.

On Thursday, Saskatoon-based Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan reported third-quarter earnings that came in 80 per cent lower than last year's as sales fell by more than two-thirds.

The world's biggest fertilizer producer said low crop prices had slashed demand for crop nutrients like potash.

"The agricultural industry has not yet broken free of this uncertainty," Potash Corp. CEO Bill Doyle told a conference call.

Potash Corp. shares closed at $105.84 in Friday afternoon trading on the TSX, down $2.24.

Harper says no regrets about posting deficit to help Canada's economy

TORONTO — Prime Minister Stephen Harper said Wednesday there are signs of a fragile recovery for the Canadian economy, but warned there could be more job losses if the U.S. sputters.

"We shouldn't kid ourselves, we were pulled into this recession by events outside of our borders and we very much could get surprises," Harper said.

"We could still see some job losses."

Speaking during a question and answer session at an economic conference in Toronto, Harper said he believed the world was in the beginnings of a global recovery, but added it's one he would currently class "as very fragile."

"We can be optimistic but we should not be over-confident."

For the immediate future, he said, the focus has to continue to be on stimulating the economy.

The prime minister also said he had no regrets about posting a deficit, arguing it was the best move under the circumstances, and noted that several measures the government has taken will benefit the economy in the longer term.

"I actually do think we are in a rare period ... where deficits are not only necessary but actually advisable," said Harper.

"It actually makes sense for the government to come in to the market place, to borrow funds, and ... put those funds to productive work."

Canada's deficit, he added, is small and manageable compared to those of other countries.

Canada will wrap up the current level of stimulus spending in the spring of 2011.

AP source: Karzai expected to accept he fell short

WASHINGTON — U.S. officials expect Afghan President Hamid Karzai to concede on Tuesday that he fell short of the 50 percent vote share in August's election that he needed to win outright, but it was unclear Monday whether that would lead quickly to a runoff election with his nearest challenger, a U.S. government official said.

Karzai could opt to embrace a runoff, which Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said Monday was logistically feasible within weeks, or he could attempt to negotiate a power-sharing arrangement with former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah, who finished second in the August balloting.

The U.S. government official, who discussed the matter on condition of anonymity because Karzai had not yet announced his decision, said it was not clear Monday which of the two avenues to settling the political crisis Karzai would pursue.

The U.S. preference is for a power-sharing deal to avoid the expense and risk of a second election.

Clinton said that Karzai intends to announce Tuesday how he will "set the stage" for resolving the country's postelection political stalemate.

"He is going to announce his intentions," Clinton told reporters at the State Department after meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. "I am going to let him do that, but I am encouraged at the direction the situation is moving."

Clinton declined to say whether Karzai has decided to accept the findings of a U.N.-backed fraud investigation that threw out nearly a third of Karzai's ballots from the disputed August election and set the stage for a possible runoff.

Zalmay Khalilzad, who was U.S. ambassador to Kabul from 2003 to 2005 and who is in Kabul in a private role seeking to resolve the political standoff, said Monday that a power-sharing arrangement may be the best solution. He said he thinks that both Karzai and Abdullah are willing to work out a unity government.

"There is every indication that the Obama administration favors a unity government rather than another vote," Khalilzad said in an interview with ABC News. He added that such an arrangement could be problematic.

"I think the most likely outcome is a unity government, but a government that will take a long time to put together, may not be very strong and will not be necessarily a very effective partner given the internal disagreements within that government," he said.

Clinton did not address the prospect of a coalition, or unity, government headed by Karzai and Abdullah.

"I am very hopeful that we will see a resolution in line with the constitutional order in the next several days," Clinton said. "But I don't want to pre-empt in any way President Karzai's statement, which will set the stage for how we go forward in the next stage of this."

Clinton said she has spoken a number of times to Karzai in recent days.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates, meanwhile, said the Obama administration needs to decide on a war strategy and not "sit on our hands" waiting for election results and a government to emerge in Kabul. In remarks to reporters traveling with him to Asia, the Pentagon chief said President Barack Obama will have to make his decisions in the context of "evolving" issues.

At U.N. headquarters in New York, a spokeswoman for U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said Karzai assured the U.N. chief that he will "fully respect" the constitutional process even if it means a runoff election.

The spokeswoman, Michele Montas, said Ban spoke with Karzai on Monday morning.

Among those most closely involved in seeking a resolution of the crisis is Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He said in interviews over the weekend from Kabul that the election process must be settled legitimately before the Obama administration can make a reasoned decision about whether to send additional troops and to commit other resources to stabilizing Afghanistan.

A Kerry spokesman in Washington, Frederick Jones, said Kerry returned to Kabul on Monday after meetings in Pakistan and met with Karzai again. It was Kerry's fourth meeting with the president in as many days, and the first since the U.N. commission's announcement that it found substantial numbers of fraudulent votes.

"He is looking for a way forward to legitimize the election and empower effective government," Jones said.

Kerry will remain in Kabul on Tuesday, with further meetings scheduled, Jones added.

In Kabul, Karzai campaign spokesman Waheed Omar said the president was waiting for the Afghan-led Independent Election Commission to decide whether to accept the fraud panel's findings that dropped Karzai's vote share to 48 percent of the total, below the 50 percent threshold needed for him to avoid a runoff.

The original vote count had given Karzai 54 percent of the total.

Once the independent commission has accepted and certified the findings, they have force of law and the Karzai campaign would comply, the spokesman said.

Clinton said she has received assurances from the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, as well as from Afghan authorities, that it's possible to conduct a second election before the onset of paralyzing winter snows.

She declined to say whether Obama would withhold a decision on U.S. troop levels in Afghanistan until the election crisis is over.

"But obviously this is a major part of our strategic review as to, you know, getting the election behind us, getting a new government that can represent the partnership we're seeking as we move forward," she said.

Bomb kills four US soldiers in Afghanistan

KABUL — NATO said Friday a roadside bomb had killed four US soldiers in Afghanistan, as pressure mounted for President Barack Obama to order thousands more soldiers into an escalating eight-year war.

"Two US service members were killed and two died of wounds sustained in a single improvised explosive device attack in southern Afghanistan October 15," the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) said.

No further details were immediately available but thousands of US troops are fighting in southern Afghanistan as part of a push to quell a resurgent Taliban in what is their spiritual heartland.

Related article: Soldiers' tale of Taliban battle

The latest military deaths come as Obama debates whether to send thousands of additional troops to the impoverished country on top of 21,000 extra forces he committed after taking office this year.

In a grim assessment of a war with military casualties at record levels, the commander of the 100,000 US and NATO troops in Afghanistan, General Stanley McChrystal, has reportedly asked Obama for 40,000 extra troops.

ISAF's commander in southern Afghanistan, Dutch Major General Mart de Kruif, told AFP in an interview Thursday that he wanted 10,000 to 15,000 more troops, including support units, to ensure security in the region.

He also called for more Afghan army and police, plus civilian workers, to help development and reconstruction projects.

Improvised explosive devices, or IEDs -- homemade, cheap and difficult to detect -- have become the Taliban's weapon of choice against foreign troops.

An AFP toll based on a tally by the independent website icasualties.org puts foreign military fatalities this year at 414 -- the bloodiest year since US-led operations to oust the Taliban regime began in late 2001.

The US president is expected to unveil a new strategy within weeks to contain an insurgency fuelled by Al-Qaeda militants and the Taliban, which is resurgent eight years after US-led troops ousted them from power.

Obama has said the top goal of any new policy would be consistent with current US aims -- rooting out Al-Qaeda and its "extremist allies".

Compounding the military difficulties is speculation that Afghan President Hamid Karzai could be forced into a run-off if he is shown not to have secured an outright majority at elections in August scarred by fraud allegations.

A fraud probe has trimmed Karzai's vote share to just 47 percent, The Washington Post said Friday.

The Independent Election Commission gave Karzai 54.6 percent in its preliminary results, enough to secure him a second five-year term.

Afghanistan's ambassador to the United States, Said Tayeb Jawad, conceded for the first time that the disputed results put Karzai and former foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah on course for a run-off.

But Karzai will likely emerge the winner even if there is a run-off, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said, adding he would probably be close to an outright victory.

"So I think one can conclude that the likelihood of him winning a second round is probably pretty high," she told CNN.

Meanwhile, in Denmark, the military announced its troops killed a child and injured two civilians in Afghanistan during clashes with Taliban fighters in the southern Helmand province on Monday.

The fighting, between a Danish motorised patrol and a group of insurgents, took place at a time when the military said there was no sign of a civilian presence.

Separately, ISAF said two civilians had lost their lives during a joint operation with Afghan police that killed a number of militants suspected of mounting attacks in the eastern province of Ghazni.

"During the operation, as militants attacked the joint force, a woman and school-aged girl were accidentally killed in the crossfire," the statement said.

It added: "It is unclear if the enemy militants or the joint force are responsible for the deaths."

Civilian casualties at the hands of foreign operations are a major source of friction between Western militaries and the Afghan government.